The Real Challenge of the Energy Transition, Exposed by the Middle East Crisis
When Hormuz was blocked and Qatari LNG cut off, the predictable line followed: "this would not have happened if we had switched to renewables." Only half true. Hyeryoun Chi, principal researcher at PLANiT, lays out the real meaning of energy security in a Q&A.
Q1. What is really happening?
Not the exit of fossil fuels, but a reshaping of supply chains. As US-led military action shook Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, the strategic value of American oil and gas rose to fill the void. Even the long-stalled Alaska LNG project (44 billion dollars, 20 million tonnes a year) revived as Asian demand piled in after the war. This is not a move to something cheaper but to a more expensive, more political fossil-fuel order. The US even seated a pipeline company's former CEO in the Senate, whose top priority is permitting reform for energy infrastructure.
Q2. Where does Korea sit?
Korea is the world's fourth-largest LNG importer, but not only a consumer. POSCO International entered Alaska LNG through long-term supply, steel, and investment, and Hanwha is putting 5 billion dollars into a US shipyard via MASGA. Korea is, paradoxically, the country that best builds the ships and infrastructure of the very energy order it must wind down. It is neither a simple victim nor a winner in control, but caught in multiple binds.
Q3. But shouldn't we cut fossil dependence?
Yes. Renewables still carry supply-chain dependence in solar and wind equipment. But the quality of the dependence differs. LNG must be bought every month and is cut off when war hits, whereas solar and wind, once installed, need no fuel imports. Equipment dependence is a matter of investment; fuel dependence holds all of one's time hostage. The sun and the wind cannot be taken hostage at Hormuz.
Q4. So what is Korea's strategy?
The real question is who sets the pace of the transition. Right now the US does. Korea's card is manufacturing technology. Korean shipyards build "alternative-fuel-ready" vessels that burn LNG now but can switch to ammonia or hydrogen later, and in 2023 Korea won the world's first four ammonia dual-fuel ships. Letting the owner choose when to switch fuel is, at the asset level, the power to set the transition's pace. Energy independence is not 100% self-sufficiency, but the power to control the speed of the transition yourself.